SUMMARY: The American Cancer Society estimates that in 2025, about 22,070 new cases of esophageal cancer will be diagnosed in the US and about 16,250 individuals will die of the disease. It is the sixth most common cause of global cancer death. Squamous Cell Carcinoma is the most common type of cancer of the esophagus among African Americans, while Adenocarcinoma is more common in Caucasians. Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC) accounts for approximately 85% of cases. Majority of esophageal cancers are unresectable at diagnosis, and most patients treated with curative intent eventually will relapse, and only about 20% of patients will survive at least 5 years following diagnosis. Patients with advanced esophageal cancer have a median survival of less than a year when treated with the standard Fluoropyrimidine plus Platinum based chemotherapy. For those patients progressing on first line chemotherapy, treatment options are limited, with a 5-year relative survival rate of 8% or less.
Recent advancements in the treatment of advanced or metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) have firmly positioned Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors (ICIs) as a cornerstone of second-line therapy. Numerous agents targeting PD-1 have demonstrated superior clinical outcomes compared to chemotherapy.
Tislelizumab (TEVIMBRA®) is a humanized immunoglobulin G4 (IgG4) anti-Programmed cell Death protein- 1 (PD-1) monoclonal antibody with high affinity and binding specificity against PD-1. It is uniquely designed to minimize binding to Fc-gamma receptors on macrophages, helping to aid immune cells of the body to detect and fight tumors, while minimizing off-target effects. The FDA in 2024 approved Tislelizumab in combination with platinum-containing chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of adults with unresectable or metastatic ESCC whose tumors express PD-L1 (≥1) and also as a single agent in adults with unresectable or metastatic ESCC after prior systemic chemotherapy that did not include a PD-(L)1 inhibitor.
RATIONALE-302 is a randomized, open-label, multicenter, Phase 3 study in which 512 patients with advanced or metastatic ESCC whose tumor progressed after first-line systemic treatment, were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive Tislelizumab 200 mg IV every 3 weeks or chemotherapy (investigators choice of Paclitaxel, Docetaxel, or Irinotecan). The trial met its Primary endpoint, demonstrating a significant improvement in Overall Survival (OS) with Tislelizumab over chemotherapy.
A comprehensive biomarker analysis stemming from the pivotal RATIONALE-302 trial has shed light on a promising genomic signal that could shape future treatment pathways. Researchers conducted extensive tumor profiling using PD-L1 ImmunoHistoChemistry (N=359), Gene Expression Profiling (N=346), and Mutation analysis (N=209) on tumor samples from patients enrolled in the RATIONALE-302 trial. The aim of this study was to uncover molecular determinants of response to Tislelizumab.
Clinical Findings: NOTCH1 as a Predictive Biomarker
Among the 209 patients with available mutation data, 22% harbored NOTCH1 mutations. This subgroup demonstrated a markedly improved Overall Survival (OS) with Tislelizumab, compared to chemotherapy:
- Median OS with tislelizumab: 18.4 months
- Median OS with chemotherapy: 5.3 months
- Hazard Ratio: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.17–0.71)
In contrast, patients with wild-type NOTCH1 derived minimal OS benefit from tislelizumab (6.0 vs 6.9 months; HR 0.81), underscoring the potential of NOTCH1 status to guide therapeutic decisions.
Mechanistic Insights: An Immunologically Favorable TME
Transcriptomic data linked NOTCH1 mutations to increased expression of Type I interferon (IFN-I) and Toll-Like Receptor (TLR) signatures—hallmarks of an activated Tumor MicroEnvironment (TME). Concurrently, these tumors exhibited reduced infiltration by B cells and neutrophils, which have been associated with resistance to immunotherapy.
Further validation using murine models showed that NOTCH1 deficiency promotes a TME, more permissive to anti–PD-1 activity, supporting a biological rationale for these clinical findings.
Independent of PD-L1 and TMB
Importantly, the survival benefit associated with NOTCH1 mutations was independent of PD-L1 expression levels and Tumor Mutational Burden (TMB). Even among patients with low PD-L1 tumor positivity (<10%), those with NOTCH1 mutations showed a trend toward improved OS with Tislelizumab over chemotherapy.
Broader Genomic Context
In addition to NOTCH1, alterations in genes such as KMT2D also correlated with improved response to Tislelizumab compared to investigator chosen chemotherapy, while EGFR alterations were associated with diminished benefit. The frequently mutated genes in the RATIONALE-302 cohort – TP53, CCND1, FGF3/4/19, CDKN2A, PIK3CA, KMT2D, NFE2L2, and TP63- fall into functional categories including cell cycle regulation, differentiation, PI3K signaling, and chromatin remodeling consistent with previous reports.
Clinical Implications
These findings strongly suggest that NOTCH1 mutation status should be evaluated in patients with advanced ESCC being considered for anti–PD-1 therapy. Routine integration of Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) may enhance treatment personalization by identifying patients most likely to derive significant benefit from immunotherapy, beyond the current reliance on PD-L1 ImmunoHistoChemistry or TMB alone.
Next Steps
While these results are promising, prospective validation is needed. A clinical trial is currently being planned to assess whether patients with NOTCH1-mutated ESCC may be optimally treated with ICI monotherapy. Additional translational studies are underway to further clarify resistance mechanisms and inform future biomarker-driven strategies.
NOTCH1 Mutation and Survival Analysis of Tislelizumab in Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Biomarker Analysis From the Randomized, Phase III, RATIONALE-302 Trial. Lu Z, Du W, Jiao X, et al. J Clin Oncol. Published online April 3, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO-24-01818
