SUMMARY: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in the US and about 1 in 8 women (12%) will develop invasive breast cancer during their lifetime. It is estimated that in the US, approximately 321,910 new cases of female breast cancer will be diagnosed in 2026, and about 42,140 women will die of the disease, largely due to metastatic recurrence.
The tumor suppressor genes such as BRCA1 and BRCA2 help repair damaged DNA and thus play an important role in maintaining cellular genetic integrity, failing which these genetic aberrations can result in malignancies. Mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 account for about 20 to 25 percent of hereditary breast cancers and about 5 to 10 percent of all breast cancers. These mutations can be inherited from either of the parents and a child has a 50 percent chance of inheriting this mutation, and the deleterious effects of the mutations are seen even when a second copy of the gene in an individual is normal. Women with germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations face markedly elevated lifetime risks of breast cancer, estimated at up to 70%. More than half of these cancers occur before the age of 50, underscoring the importance of informed counseling regarding risk-modifying exposures.
For much of the latter half of the 20th century, Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) was widely prescribed to alleviate menopausal symptoms and protect against long-term complications such as osteoporosis. This practice shifted dramatically in 2002, when the Women’s Health Initiative reported increased risks of cardiovascular events and breast cancer associated with hormone therapy in older, postmenopausal women. In the aftermath, both patients and clinicians largely retreated from Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT), and its use declined sharply.
While those findings reshaped care in the general population, their applicability to women with hereditary cancer predisposition, particularly carriers of pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 variants, has remained uncertain. These women face markedly elevated risks of ovarian and fallopian tube cancers and are therefore advised to undergo risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy at relatively young ages. The procedure is effective for cancer prevention but induces abrupt surgical menopause, often decades earlier than natural menopause, with well-documented short- and long-term consequences including vasomotor symptoms, sexual dysfunction, bone loss, and adverse cardiovascular and cognitive effects.
Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT) is the most effective intervention for mitigating these outcomes of early menopause. However, concerns that hormone exposure could further increase breast cancer risk in BRCA carriers have led to substantial hesitation, misinformation, and, in many cases, prolonged untreated symptoms. Researchers have emphasized, recommending premenopausal oophorectomy without offering a safe strategy to manage its consequences creates an untenable clinical dilemma.
Study Design: Emulating a Trial in a High-Risk Population
To address this evidence gap, investigators conducted the largest prospective matched analysis to date examining MHT use and breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Using data from a longitudinal cohort, the study sought to emulate a randomized clinical trial by carefully matching women who initiated MHT after menopause, predominantly surgical menopause, to those who did not.
Eligible participants had no prior cancer history, no bilateral mastectomy, and had entered menopause. A total of 676 matched pairs were created, matched one-to-one by gene mutation (BRCA1 or BRCA2), year of birth, and age at menopause. Participants ranged in age from 22 to 76 years, with a mean age of 43.8 years. MHT formulations initiated after menopause included estrogen-only therapy, combined estrogen–progestogen therapy, progestogen alone, tibolone, and conjugated equine estrogen plus bazedoxifene. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast cancer risk.
Results: No Signal of Increased Breast Cancer Risk
After a mean follow-up of 5.6 years from the date of first MHT use, breast cancer incidence was significantly lower among women who used MHT compared with their matched, unexposed counterparts. Incident breast cancer occurred in 12.9% of MHT users versus 18.9% of non-users (P = 0.002).
Notably, estrogen-only therapy was associated with a substantial reduction in breast cancer risk, corresponding to a 63% relative decrease compared with non-users. In contrast, no increased or decreased risk was observed with combined estrogen–progestogen therapy, progestogen monotherapy, or tibolone. Among the 43 women who received conjugated equine estrogen plus bazedoxifene, no breast cancer diagnoses were reported during follow-up, an exploratory finding that warrants further investigation. Importantly, risk estimates were consistent across BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers, underscoring the relevance of these findings across mutation subtypes.
Clinical Implications
These data provide critical reassurance for clinicians managing young women with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndromes. In contrast to earlier studies conducted in the general population, MHT use in BRCA1/2 carriers was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, regardless of formulation. Estrogen-only regimens, in particular, appeared protective, although causality cannot be inferred.
While limitations include a relatively modest follow-up duration and small numbers in certain subgroups, this prospective analysis offers the strongest evidence to date supporting the safety of MHT in this high-risk population. The findings reinforce the need for individualized, evidence-based counseling that balances cancer risk reduction with quality-of-life preservation.
Moving Forward
As MHT formulations continue to evolve, ongoing research will be essential to refine risk stratification and optimize menopause management strategies in BRCA mutation carriers. For now, these results support a personalized approach to MHT use in women experiencing surgical or natural menopause after risk-reducing oophorectomy, provided there are no contraindications. For many patients, informed use of MHT may offer not only symptom relief, but also a path toward improved long-term health and wellbeing without compromising breast cancer risk.
GS3-01. Menopausal Hormone Therapy and the Risk of Breast Cancer in Women with a Pathogenic Variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2. Kotsopoulos J, Seca M, Jacek G, et al. Presented at the 2025 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium (SABCS; Abstract GS3-01).
