SUMMARY: The American Cancer Society estimates that in 2025, about 67,440 people will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and 51,980 people will die of the disease. Detecting cancer at early stages can significantly increase survival rates and outcomes. Pancreatic Ductal AdenoCarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal malignancies, ranking among the leading causes of cancer-related mortality globally. A significant challenge in improving PDAC outcomes is its frequent diagnosis at an advanced stage, when therapeutic options are limited and prognosis is poor, with a 5-year survival rate of approximately 10%. Early detection is critical to expanding treatment possibilities and enhancing survival rates. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer diagnosed in both men and women in the United States. The American Cancer Society estimates that approximately 154,270 new cases of CRC will be diagnosed in the United States in 2025 and about 52,900 patients will die of the disease. Even though the diagnosis of colorectal cancer in the US is dropping among people 65 years and older, the incidence has been rising in the younger age groups, with 12% of colorectal cancer cases diagnosed in people under age 50, leading to revisions in screening guidelines.
Study Objective
To provide an updated analysis of Annual Percentage Changes (APCs) in the incidence of pancreatic and colorectal adenocarcinoma across different age groups, focusing on younger populations, using data from the SEER database (2000–2021).
Methods
Data Source
- SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database (22 registries, ~47.9% of US population)
- Data updated through April 17, 2024
Study Design
- Retrospective cohort study
- Inclusion: Pancreatic and colorectal adenocarcinoma only
- Exclusion: Rare pancreatic cancer subtypes (e.g., neuroendocrine tumors, mucinous cystadenocarcinoma)
- The Rutgers University IRB exempted the study, and informed consent was not needed owing to the deidentified nature of the data.
Analysis
- Yearly incidence rates per 100,000 population
- Annual Percentage Changes (APCs) and 95% confidence intervals calculated for three age groups:
- 15–34 years
- 35–54 years
- 55+ years
Results
Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma
- Total cases (2000–2021): 275,273
- 51.8% male, 87.1% aged ≥55 years
- APC in 15–34 years: 4.35% (95% CI, 2.03–6.73)
- APC in 35–54 years: 1.54% (95% CI, 1.18–1.90)
- APC in 55+ years: 1.74% (95% CI, 1.59–1.89)
The APC for pancreatic adenocarcinoma in the group aged 15 to 34 year was statistically significantly higher than the APCs of 1.74 (P =0.007) for the group aged 55 years and older and 1.54 (P =0.004) for the group aged 35 to 54 years. The authors commented that the dramatic increase in the APC in the younger population suggests that close attention should be paid to this trend.
Colorectal Adenocarcinoma
- Total cases: 1,215,200
- 52.8% male, 80.4% aged ≥55 years
- APC in 15–34 years: 1.75% (95% CI, 1.08–2.42)
- APC in 35–54 years: 0.78% (95% CI, 0.51–1.06)
- APC in 55+ years: -3.31% (95% CI, -3.54 to -3.08)
The APC for colorectal adenocarcinoma for the group aged 55 years and older was statistically significantly lower than the APCs for the group aged 15 to 34 years (P =0.001) and for the group aged 35 to 54 years (P =0.002). Most declines in colorectal cancer incidence was attributed to increased screening in older adults. Screening age was lowered from 50 to 45 years and may likely reduce future incidence in those aged 35–54.
Interpretation & Implications
- Though rare, pancreatic adenocarcinoma in young adults (15–34 years) is rising at an alarming rate.
- Potential contributors: Smoking, alcohol, environmental exposures, though definitive causes remain unclear.
- Clinician awareness is critical when evaluating younger patients with:
- Abdominal pain
- Weight loss
- Anemia
- Family history of pancreatic cancer
Clinical Insight: Historically, the above findings are not investigated in a young individual. It is therefore important to make sure a serious condition is not missed.
- Increasing in younger groups, despite an overall declining trend.
- This supports recent screening age revisions and highlights the need for vigilance in symptomatic young patients.
Limitations
- SEER data covers ~47.9% of the U.S. population.
- However, SEER is designed for accurate trend analysis and has reliable coding for common cancers like pancreatic and colorectal adenocarcinoma.
- Restricting to adenocarcinoma improves the homogeneity and accuracy of the study.
Conclusions
- Pancreatic adenocarcinoma incidence is rising in all age groups, especially in the youngest cohort (15–34 years).
- Colorectal adenocarcinoma is increasing among younger individuals, while declining among those 55 and older.
- Clinicians must heighten awareness of these trends and consider appropriate workups in symptomatic younger patients.
Key Takeaways
- Pancreatic adenocarcinoma incidence rose >4% annually in individuals aged 15–34 years.
- Colorectal adenocarcinoma also increased among patients aged 15–34 years.
- Consider early imaging and endoscopic evaluations in symptomatic young adults.
- Continue to support early screening efforts, especially for high-risk individuals.
Incidence of Pancreas and Colorectal Adenocarcinoma in the US. Bussetty A, Shen J, Benias PC, et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2025;8(4):e254682. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.4682
