SUMMARY: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in the US and about 1 in 8 women (12%) will develop invasive breast cancer during their lifetime. It is estimated that in the US, approximately 316,950 new cases of female breast cancer will be diagnosed in 2025, and about 42,170 women will die of the disease, largely due to metastatic recurrence.
Background
Approximately 70% of breast tumors express Estrogen Receptors and/or Progesterone Receptors. Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy (ET) is a cornerstone in managing Estrogen Receptor (ER)–positive early-stage breast cancer, contributing significantly to reduced recurrence and improved Overall Survival (OS). However, its role in patients with ER-low disease, defined as tumors with 1%-10% ER positivity by ImmunoHistoChemistry (IHC), remains unclear and controversial.
Study Objective
The present study was conducted to determine the association between ET omission and OS in high-risk, ER-low early-stage breast cancer patients who received chemotherapy, leveraging Real-World Data from the National Cancer Database (NCDB).
Methods
A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using the 2021 NCDB Participant User File, focusing on female patients diagnosed with Stage I–III ER-positive breast cancer between 2018 and 2020. ER-low status was defined as 1%-10% ER expression per ASCO/CAP guidelines. Progesterone Receptor (PR)–positive disease was defined as 1% or more receptor expression. This study included patients who received neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy, reflecting a high-risk population with aggressive tumor features. The study excluded male patients, Stage IV disease, noninvasive cancers, and cases with incomplete treatment or outcome data. The final cohort comprised 7,018 ER-low patients who received chemotherapy.
Key Findings
- Endocrine Therapy (ET) Usage Patterns:
Among patients with ER-low breast cancer receiving chemotherapy, 42% did not initiate ET within 12 months post-surgery. ET omission was more prevalent in tumors that were:- Progesterone Receptor (PR)–negative
- HER2–negative
- High grade (2 or 3)
- High proliferative index (Ki67 ≥20%)
- Treated with NeoAdjuvant Chemotherapy (NAC)
- Survival Impact:
Over a median follow-up of 3 years, 586 deaths occurred. ET omission was associated with significantly poorer OS:- Overall HR: 1.23 (95% CI, 1.04–1.46; P =0.02)
- ER 1%-5% subgroup: HR 1.15 (95% CI, 0.91–1.45; P =0.24)
- ER 6%-10% subgroup: HR 1.42 (95% CI, 1.00–2.02; P =0.048)
- Effect in Residual Disease (RD) After NAC:
- For patients with RD, ET omission led to worse OS (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00–1.57; P =0.046)
- No OS difference was observed in patients who achieved pathologic Complete Response (pCR) (HR, 1.06; P =0.84)
- 3-Year OS Estimates:
- With ET: 92.3% (95% CI, 91.3–93.3%)
- Without ET: 89.1% (95% CI, 87.8–90.5%)
Clinical Implications
These findings suggest that omission of ET in ER-low breast cancer is associated with an increased risk of mortality, particularly in patients with:
- Residual disease after neoadjuvant chemotherapy
- Tumors with higher ER expression (6%-10%)
This supports the clinical value of ET even in ER-low disease subsets, which have historically been managed more like Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) due to their aggressive features and ambiguous endocrine responsiveness.
Guideline and Research Context
The 2010 ASCO/CAP guidelines established 1% or more ER positivity as the threshold for ET eligibility. Yet, international variation remains. Swedish guidelines, for instance, never adopted the lower threshold, and recent European discourse suggests reverting to 10% or more. Compounding the uncertainty, clinical trials often exclude ER-low tumors or treat them as TNBC. Retrospective studies from Sweden and China have shown mixed results regarding ET’s benefit in ER-low disease, further emphasizing the need for prospective data.
Discussion
Despite the relatively small proportion of ER-low tumors (3% of ER-positive breast cancer), the findings could impact the care of tens of thousands of patients globally. The biologic heterogeneity of ER-low tumors, often resembling basal-like subtypes, complicates treatment decisions. Still, evidence from this large cohort supports offering ET, particularly in patients with residual disease post-neoadjuvant chemotherapy, or tumors on the higher end of the ER-low spectrum. Additionally, the data align with emerging strategies to escalate therapy in ER-low BC, including use of CDK4/6 inhibitors (e.g., Abemaciclib, Ribociclib), which have demonstrated benefit even in this subgroup.
Limitations
- Lack of data on ET adherence, recurrence, or cause of death
- Short follow-up (3 years)
- Potential confounding due to observational design
- Lack of molecular characterization to distinguish responders
Nevertheless, sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of findings.
Conclusion
Omission of endocrine therapy in ER-low, early-stage breast cancer, especially following chemotherapy, is linked to inferior Overall Survival. The strongest signal of benefit is in patients with residual disease post- neoadjuvant chemotherapy and those with ER expression closer to 10%. Until randomized trials clarify endocrine sensitivity in this population, clinicians should counsel patients on the potential survival benefit of ET, even in cases with limited ER expression.
Key Takeaway for Oncologists:
In the absence of prospective trial data, Real-World Evidence supports continued use of endocrine therapy in patients with ER-low early-stage breast cancer, particularly those with residual disease after neoadjuvant chemotherapy or higher ER expression within the 1%-10% range.
Endocrine Therapy Omission in Estrogen Receptor–Low (1%-10%) Early-Stage Breast Cancer. Choong GM, Hoskin TL, Boughey JC, et al. J Clin Oncol 2025;43:1875-1885.
